{"id":843,"date":"2008-10-28T19:32:43","date_gmt":"2008-10-28T19:32:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/osmeusapontamentos.com\/?p=843"},"modified":"2008-10-28T19:32:43","modified_gmt":"2008-10-28T19:32:43","slug":"o-fim-do-mundo-em-perspectiva-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/osmeusapontamentos.com\/index.php\/2008\/10\/28\/o-fim-do-mundo-em-perspectiva-1\/","title":{"rendered":"O fim do mundo em perspectiva #1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Desde 1967 que nos Estados Unidos \u00e9 avaliado o grau de optimismo que os consumidores t\u00eam na sua economia nacional atrav\u00e9s do indicador <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Consumer_Confidence_Index\">Consumer Confidence Index<\/a>.<br \/>\nEste indicador registou este m\u00eas o menor valor que h\u00e1 registo (&#8220;The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index\u2122 Plummets to an All-Time Low&#8221;) descendo de 61.5 para 35.5.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/img\/cci_200810.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>a imagem que serviu de base a este gr\u00e1fico veio <a href=\"http:\/\/bespokeinvest.typepad.com\/bespoke\/2008\/10\/consumer-nonfidence.html\">daqui<\/a><\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"80%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Per\u00edodo<\/td>\n<td>Max-Min<\/td>\n<td>Dif<\/td>\n<td>% Dif<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1969\/1971 (2anos)<\/td>\n<td>140-75<\/td>\n<td>-65pt<\/td>\n<td>-47%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1973\/1975 (2anos)<\/td>\n<td>120-43<\/td>\n<td>-77pt<\/td>\n<td>-64%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1990\/1992 (2anos)<\/td>\n<td>120-47<\/td>\n<td>-73pt<\/td>\n<td>-60%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2000\/2003 (3anos)<\/td>\n<td>140-60<\/td>\n<td>-80pt<\/td>\n<td>-57%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2007\/2008 (1ano)<\/td>\n<td>110-38<\/td>\n<td>-72pt<\/td>\n<td>-65%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Numa an\u00e1lise muito r\u00e1pida ao gr\u00e1fico do CCI desde 67 podemos constatar algumas coisas:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>nos \u00faltimos doze meses (aproximadamente) o indice desceu de cerca de 110 para 38, uma descida de 72 pontos ou -65%<\/li>\n<li>desde que o indice foi criado podemos encontrar mais quatro descidas de cerca de 50%<\/li>\n<li>entre 73 e 75 houve uma descida praticamente igual a nivel absoluto e percentual \u00e0 actual<\/li>\n<li> de uma an\u00e1lise nada rigorosa do mapa d\u00e1 a impress\u00e3o que esta \u00faltima descida ocorreu num espa\u00e7o de tempo mais curto que o habitual<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Em portugal o indicador com o mesmo objectivo parece-me ser o Indicador de Confian\u00e7a dos Consumidores do INE. Ver o artigo &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ine.pt\/ngt_server\/attachfileu.jsp?look_parentBoui=33536752&amp;att_display=n&amp;att_download=y\">Indicador de clima econ\u00f3mico prolonga movimento descendente e indicador de confian\u00e7a dos Consumidores recupera &#8211; Setembro de 2008<\/a>&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Nota: como disse esta \u00e9 uma an\u00e1lise muito r\u00e1pida a este gr\u00e1fico (nem \u00e9 aos dados base). n\u00e3o sou economista nem tenho particular forma\u00e7\u00e3o nessa \u00e1rea pelo que pode perfeitamente acontecer estar a ignorar algum ponto importante. se assim for usem e abusem da caixa de coment\u00e1rios<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Desde 1967 que nos Estados Unidos \u00e9 avaliado o grau de optimismo que os consumidores t\u00eam na sua economia nacional atrav\u00e9s do indicador Consumer Confidence Index. Este indicador registou este m\u00eas o menor valor que h\u00e1 registo (&#8220;The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index\u2122 Plummets to an All-Time Low&#8221;) descendo de 61.5 para 35.5. a imagem [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[125,172,207],"class_list":["post-843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ler-ver-ouvir-passear","tag-cci","tag-crise","tag-economia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>O fim do mundo em perspectiva #1 - Os Meus Apontamentos<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/osmeusapontamentos.com\/index.php\/2008\/10\/28\/o-fim-do-mundo-em-perspectiva-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"O fim do mundo em perspectiva #1 - Os Meus Apontamentos\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Desde 1967 que nos Estados Unidos \u00e9 avaliado o grau de optimismo que os consumidores t\u00eam na sua economia nacional atrav\u00e9s do indicador Consumer Confidence Index. 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